Monetary Policy Surprises over Time

Commodity Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises

Commodity prices are important both as a source of shocks and for the propagation of shocks originating elsewhere in the economy. Many vector autoregression (VAR) studies estimate a gradual response of commodity prices to monetary policy shocks. Exploiting information in high-frequency financial market data, and using the methods of Rigobon and Sack (2004) I find that a 10 basis point surprise ...

Time-Varying Monetary Policy Reaction Function: The Case of Iran

A Fine Time for Monetary Policy?

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis or the Federal Reserve System.

U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and Currency Futures Markets: A New Look

Intraday currency futures prices react to both surprises in the federal funds target rate (the target factor) and surprises in the anticipated future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor) in similar magnitude, and the reaction is short-lived. Dollar-denominated currency futures prices drop significantly in response to positive surprises (i.e., unexpected increases) in t...

Surprises in European science policy.

I recently participated in a daring experiment—I was a member of the selection committee for the European Commission’s functional genomics projects under the 5th Framework Programme. And my experience of this experiment was quite surprising for two reasons. The first was that the EC has obviously listened to scientists’ opinions and the second was that they have shown the ability to change the ...